BOJ eyes slight upgrade in forecast, to maintain policy

Wed Oct 30, 2013 5:03pm EDT
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By Leika Kihara

TOKYO (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan is expected to slightly revise up its economic growth forecast to around 1.5 percent for the next fiscal year at a policy review on Thursday on hopes a government's stimulus package will offset slowing exports to Asia.

No change is expected to the massive stimulus the central bank launched in April of doubling base money by asset purchases to meet its goal of lifting inflation to 2 percent in roughly two years.

The BOJ may raise its for forecast core consumer inflation to 2 percent for fiscal 2015, effectively the first formal recognition that its target is within reach, although that is a close call as some board members are skeptical on whether price growth will pick up so quickly.

Tepid exports to emerging Asia are also sapping the BOJ's confidence that a recovery in overseas markets will take up the slack when consumers are hit with a higher sales tax next April.

That will temper the extent to which the BOJ might raise its economic forecasts in a quarterly review of its long-term projections, said people familiar with the BOJ's thinking.

"Risks from overseas have heightened somewhat from three months ago, delaying a pick-up in the global economy," said a source familiar with the central bank's thinking.

The economy expanded for a third straight quarter in April-June as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's stimulus policies boosted business sentiment and household spending.

But a slump in exports has cast doubt on the central bank's view that global growth will pick up in time to offset an expected downturn in household spending when the sales tax rises to 8 percent from 5 percent next April.   Continued...

A man walks past the Bank of Japan building in Tokyo May 29, 2013. REUTERS/Yuya Shino