Analysis: Emerging markets rout a reality check for Davos elite

Sun Jan 26, 2014 7:11am EST
 
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By Paul Carrel and Ben Hirschler

DAVOS, Switzerland (Reuters) - Just as they were getting their swagger back, the global elite stumbled last week on an emerging market sell-off that served as a reminder of the risks the global economy still faces.

Veterans of the annual World Economic Forum in Davos seized on the wobble as a warning that expectations for a smooth upswing were misplaced, and that recovery would likely be volatile and uneven.

The euro zone crisis is out of its acute phase and growth is returning across the developed world but a revival fuelled largely by vast amounts of new central bank money is a capricious one.

The prospect of the U.S. Federal Reserve turning off its money taps this year, combined with political troubles in several emerging markets, drove last week's sell-off and exposed some of the unresolved problems in both developing and advanced economies.

"I hear way too much optimism now," Larry Fink, CEO of investment group BlackRock, told the forum.

"I think the experience of the marketplace this week is going to be indicative of this entire year. We are going to be in a world of much greater volatility."

The return of growth in the United States, Japan and Europe masks festering problems from chronic youth unemployment to skills shortages and rising inequality that dampened any hubris in Davos.

Tech executives were exuberant about breakthroughs that are revolutionising production, healthcare and communication but others warned those advances may kill jobs.   Continued...

 
European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi is seen on screens during a session at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos January 25, 2014. REUTERS/Ruben Sprich