Canadian dollar to remain weak as monetary policy paths split: Reuters poll

Wed Jun 3, 2015 10:08am EDT
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By Anu Bararia and Leah Schnurr

BENGALURU/OTTAWA (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar is expected to weaken through the rest of the year based on an outlook for steady domestic interest rates against an expected U.S. rate hike, though the loonie is not likely to revisit its lows for 2015, a Reuters poll found.

The low price of oil, a major Canadian export, will continue to be a major risk for the currency. The Canadian dollar lost about 20 percent from its peak last July to its low in March as oil prices lost more than half of their value.

"Oil price movement will remain a key risk for the Canadian dollar," Eric Theoret, currency strategist at Scotiabank, wrote in a note. "However, its significance appears to be fading with the Bank of Canada's shift in focus toward the U.S. recovery."

The Canadian dollar kicked off the year with a nearly 9 percent plunge in January as oil prices slumped and the Bank of Canada unexpectedly cut interest rates.

While the currency has managed to recover some gains since hitting a six-year low in mid-March, analysts see it softening in the months to come.

The median forecast from over 45 foreign exchange strategists has the Canadian dollar CAD=D4 trading at C$1.24 against the greenback, or 80.65 U.S. cents, in a month from now, not far from where it was trading on Tuesday.

The loonie is expected to weaken to C$1.26 in six months before firming slightly to C$1.25 in a year. That would see the currency avoid the low of C$1.2835 it touched in March, which has been the low for the year.

Meanwhile, Canada's central bank is unlikely to move soon on rates.   Continued...

A Canadian dollar coin, commonly known as the "Loonie", is pictured in this illustration picture taken in Toronto January 23, 2015. REUTERS/Mark Blinch