Fed leans on big balance sheet to soften rate hike impact
By Ann Saphir and Jonathan Spicer
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Federal Reserve policymakers appear to have succeeded in their push last month to convince investors the central bank will hold on to its $4.5-trillion portfolio at least until next year, a Fed survey showed on Thursday.
Recent interviews with officials showed they were counting on the Fed's massive bond holdings to blunt some of the impact of interest-rate hikes this year. But they were also concerned that markets did not fully appreciate that the central bank was willing to hang on to the bonds for longer than thought only three or six months ago.
They said that apparent perception gap could explain in part why they are expecting a brisker series of rate hikes in 2016 than investors do. It was also a reason why, as it raised rates last month for the first time in nearly a decade, the U.S. central bank used new language saying it will keep its portfolio at its record size until rate hikes are "well under way."
The nudge, designed to push back expectations when the Fed would start shrinking its giant portfolio, seems to have worked.
The New York Fed's survey published on Thursday showed that before last month's rate hike most Wall Street dealers had expected the balance sheet to start shrinking around December.
But canvassed again on Dec. 18 most forecast the Fed would keep its $2.5 trillion Treasuries portfolio intact until March of next year, and its nearly $2 trillion mortgage-backed securities until January of 2017.
San Francisco Fed President John Williams told Reuters that by holding long-term borrowing costs down, the Fed's giant portfolio should give it some more headroom to raise rates without accidentally triggering an economic slowdown.