Peaks, black swans and bonanzas: Market tips, bold calls and eyecatchers for 2017

Fri Dec 2, 2016 8:41am EST
 
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By Jamie McGeever

LONDON (Reuters) - Politics, economics and finance have all been turned on their head in 2016, and investors are already looking ahead to 2017 with anticipation and trepidation.

The consensus, broadly, is that the 35-year bull market in bonds is over, inflation is back, central banks are maxed out, and for the first time in a decade any stimulus to the global economy will now come from governments.

The implications for markets appear to be further increases in bond yields, developed world stocks and the dollar, while emerging market currencies, stocks and bonds are expected to struggle under the weight of higher U.S. bond yields.

In equities, developed markets are favored over emerging, cyclical sectors over defensive, banks are expected to benefit from steepening bond yield curves, while infrastructure spending could boost housing and construction stocks.

That's the consensus. But what goes against that grain? Where might the wrinkles appear? And even within the broad consensus, are there any eye-catching forecasts or trade recommendations?

1. Bond yields to FALL?

HSBC, who correctly called the recent slide in U.S. bond yields to historic lows, says bond yields may well rise next year and expects 10-year Treasury yields to hit 2.5 percent.   Continued...

 
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, NY, U.S. November 18, 2016. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid