China's reforms not enough to arrest mounting debt: Moody's
By Yawen Chen and Ryan Woo
BEIJING (Reuters) - China's structural reforms will slow the pace of its debt build-up but will not be enough to arrest it, and another credit rating cut for the country is possible down the road unless it gets its ballooning credit in check, officials at Moody's said.
The comments came two days after Moody's downgraded China's sovereign ratings by one notch to A1, saying it expects the financial strength of the world's second-largest economy to erode in coming years as growth slows and debt continues to mount.
In announcing the downgrade, Moody's Investors Service also changed its outlook on China from "negative" to "stable", suggesting no further ratings changes for some time.
China has strongly criticized the downgrade, asserting it was based on "inappropriate methodology", exaggerating difficulties facing the economy and underestimating the government's reform efforts.
In response, senior Moody's official Marie Diron said on Friday that the ratings agency has been encouraged by the "vast reform agenda" undertaken by the Chinese authorities to contain risks from the rapid rise in debt.
However, while Moody's believes the reforms may slow the pace at which debt is rising, they will not be enough to arrest the trend and levels will not drop dramatically, Diron said.
Diron said China's economic recovery since late last year was mainly thanks to policy stimulus, and expects Beijing will continue to rely on pump-priming to meet its official economic growth targets, adding to the debt overhang.