Asia economic growth to languish as China slows: poll

Fri Oct 24, 2014 5:13am EDT
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By Sumanta Dey

BANGALORE (Reuters) - Emerging Asia will contribute less to the global economy in 2015 than was expected just months ago as a slowdown in China drags on growth in the region, partially offset by acceleration in the United States, Reuters polls showed.

Until recently the primary engine of global growth, most Asian economies have slowed, hamstrung by erratic exports, sluggish domestic demand, capital outflows and political and policy uncertainty.

At the same time, many of Asia's major trading partners in the West are grappling with disinflation and weak demand, making it difficult for central banks there to move away from aggressive monetary stimulus.

Estimates for 2015 GDP growth were either cut or left unchanged for nine Asian countries in the latest poll of over 200 economists conducted over the past week, with Hong Kong, Indonesia and Singapore bearing the brunt of the downgrades.

India, Malaysia and Thailand were the few economies for which economists made slight upgrades to growth projections.

These latest lacklustre forecasts follow a similarly tepid performance this year, during which China's economy slumped to its slowest pace of growth since the global financial crisis.

"The Chinese economy is unbalanced at present with an excess of investment, much of which has been financed via debt," said Jay Bryson, global economist at Wells Fargo.

"The slowdown that is under way in China is partially policy-induced, and the days of double-digit Chinese economic growth appear to be a thing of the past."   Continued...

Workers labour at a construction site in Beijing October 10, 2013. 
 REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon