Chances of Greece euro exit balancing on a knife's edge: Reuters Poll

Mon Jun 29, 2015 11:19am EDT
 
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By Jonathan Cable

LONDON (Reuters) - Greece is almost certain to miss a 1.6 billion euro payment to the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday but it's touch-and-go whether it will have to leave the euro zone, a snap Reuters poll found.

The poll of more than 70 economists and traders, taken on Monday after talks between Athens and its creditors broke down, concluded there was a median 90 percent probability Greece misses Tuesday's repayment.

But while the probability of Greece leaving the euro zone rose sharply to 45 percent from 30 percent just a week ago, the consensus remained - just - that Athens will stay in the euro zone.

"Greek debt negotiations will go into extra time at the end of extra time, and it is still conceivable that a solution can be found at the final, final minute to take the whole crisis into a replay a few months down the road," said Kit Juckes at Societe Generale.

"Or disaster might strike."

Over several months of Reuters polls the probability hovered around just one-in-three but 48 of 72 said the risk Greece abandons the euro had gone up significantly while 21 said it had risen very significantly.

One even said it was now almost inevitable Greece leaves and only two said there had been no real change since the dramatic last-minute breakdown of talks over the weekend.

The IMF, European Union and the European Central Bank insist Athens must accept reforms to repair its finances in return for another bailout that would help it meet its debt obligations.   Continued...

 
Euro coins are seen in front of a displayed Greece flag in this photo illustration taken in Zenica, Bosnia and Herzegovina, June 29, 2015. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic