U.S. recession to end soon, modest recovery seen: poll

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. recession is set to end "soon," but continued job losses and plunging house prices point to an economic recovery that will be more moderate than those experienced in previous downturns, a survey showed.

The survey of 45 professional forecasters released by the National Association of Business Economists (NABE) on Wednesday found almost three-quarters expected the economic downturn to end by the third quarter of this year.

The remaining saw the turning point delayed until either the last quarter of this year or the first three months of 2010. None of the respondents believed the recession, now in its 17th month, would extend beyond the first quarter of 2010.

"While the overall tone remains soft, there are emerging signs that the economy is stabilizing," said NABE President Chris Varvares.

"Business economists look for the recession to end soon, but that the economic recovery is likely to be considerably more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines."

Recent economic data have suggested that the intensity of the housing-led downturn was starting to ease as some of the government's record $787 billion package of spending and tax cuts started to filter through the economy.

Over two-thirds of respondents in the NABE survey forecast home sales bottoming by mid-year, with 60 percent predicting a floor for housing starts within the same time frame.

Still, economists do not see a return to near trend growth until the fourth quarter of 2010, citing rising unemployment, falling house prices and difficulties accessing credit.