World economy to trudge on in 2012 despite Europe: Reuters poll

Tue Dec 27, 2011 3:55pm EST
 
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By Andy Bruce

LONDON (Reuters) - Europe faces another year of dismal economic performance in 2012 that will weigh on global growth, but emerging markets and the United States should at least keep the world economy moving in the right direction.

There are several reasons why next year may be nothing to look forward to, according to Reuters polls from the last few months.

Many of the world's biggest developed economies are heading into recession, global stock markets look set to recoup only a fraction of their heavy losses in 2011, oil prices will head lower, and asset managers are unsure where best to invest.

And these could be the best-case scenarios.

Most economists base their assumptions on the hope that the euro zone's sovereign debt crisis will not boil over into a new global economic crisis, having already dented growth in major exporters to Europe.

Still, most of the major emerging market economies like Brazil and China should pick up speed later next year. All of them have suffered from slowing economies in recent months, caused mainly by tightening monetary policy in the face of high inflation.

"It's important to stress the world economy is still growing. But it's a tale of two worlds," said Gerard Lyons, chief economist at Standard Chartered Bank.

"The storyline for 2012 is that Europe drags the world down in the first half of the year, and China drags it up in the second half of the year."   Continued...