CANADA FX DEBT-C$ rises to near 5-month high on retail data, oil prices

Fri Mar 18, 2016 10:05am EDT
 
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* Canadian dollar at C$1.2964, or 77.14 U.S. cents
    * Currency touched strongest level since Oct. 19 at C$1.2924
    * Bond prices lower across maturity curve

    By Fergal Smith
    TORONTO, March 18 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar
strengthened to a nearly five-month high against its U.S.
counterpart on Friday, supported by firm domestic retail sales
data and an extended rally in crude oil prices.
    Canada's retail sales rose 2.1 percent in January, data from
Statistics Canada showed, much better than the 0.6 percent gain
analysts had expected. Excluding the auto sector, sales were up
1.2 percent, while overall volumes gained 2.1 percent.
 
    "The retail sales number was a barnburner, really sets up
monthly GDP for a strong result," said Nick Exarhos, economist
at CIBC Capital Markets.
    It followed strong manufacturing data on Wednesday which
also caught the market's attention.
    The retail sales data vindicates the Bank of Canada's
decision to keep interest rates unchanged in January, said
Andrew Kelvin, senior rates strategist at TD Securities.    
    The implied probability of a Bank of Canada rate cut by
year-end dipped to 33 percent from 36 percent before the data.
It had been 87 percent before the release of the same two
reports a month ago.
    However, the currency has strengthened to a degree that it
could impact "steering" of monetary policy, Exarhos said.
    It has rebounded 13 percent since hitting a 12-year low in
January at C$1.4689.    
    U.S. crude prices were up 1.84 percent to $40.94 a
barrel on expectations of a production freeze by major
exporters, stronger seasonal demand and U.S. dollar weakness.
    At 9:37 a.m. EDT (1337 GMT), the Canadian dollar 
was trading at C$1.2964 to the greenback, or 77.14 U.S. cents.
That was stronger than Thursday's close of C$1.2989, or 76.99
U.S. cents.
    The currency's weakest level on Friday was C$1.3031, while
it touched its strongest level since Oct. 19 at C$1.2924.
    Canada's consumer price inflation report, typically a major
driver for the market, was overshadowed by the retail sales
data.
    The annual inflation rate slowed to 1.4 percent in February
as a drop in gasoline prices pulled inflation away from the
mid-point of the Bank of Canada's 2.0 percent target, data from
Statistics Canada showed. 
    Canadian government bond prices were lower across the
maturity curve, with the two-year price down 2
Canadian cents to yield 0.542 percent and the benchmark 10-year
 falling 5 Canadian cents to yield 1.295 percent.
    The Canada-U.S. two-year bond spread was 2.9 basis points
less negative at -30.6 basis points, while the 10-year spread
was 2.3 basis points less negative at -59.0 basis points as
Canadian government bonds underperformed.

 (Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Paul Simao)