CANADA FX DEBT-C$ steadies as stocks gain after U.S. data

Fri Aug 12, 2011 1:24pm EDT
 
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 * C$ steadies after weak U.S. sentiment number
 * C$0.9895 to the U.S. dollar, or $1.0106
 * Quiet end to week seen after volatility
 * Bond prices lower, Canada underperforms
 * BoC rate views shifting; BMO, RBC see 2012 hikes
 By Andrea Hopkins
 TORONTO, Aug 12 (Reuters) - Canada's dollar steadied in
midday trade on Friday, regaining ground after unexpectedly
weak U.S. consumer sentiment data knocked it a bit, as analysts
looked for a quiet end to a volatile week.
 A survey of U.S. consumer confidence by the University of
Michigan showed sentiment fell to its lowest level since 1980,
spooking investors, but a stronger-than-expected gain in retail
sales excluding autos helped Wall Street stocks regain ground.
[.N] [ID:N1E77B08W]
 "We weakened off after the Michigan number came out, it was
quite a bit weaker than expected, and the Canadian dollar saw
its weakest levels of the day. But then equities turned around
and the S&P and Dow went positive, and that's why the Canadian
dollar strengthened," said David Bradley, director of foreign
exchange trading at Scotia Capital.
 The Canadian dollar often moves in tandem with riskier
assets like stocks and commodities. Toronto stocks made
moderate gains on Friday in an advance led by energy and
financial shares. [.TO]
 At 12:51 p.m. (1651 GMT), the Canadian dollar CAD=D4 was
at C$0.9895 to the U.S. dollar, or $1.0106, slightly below
C$0.9883 to the U.S. dollar, or $1.0118, at Thursday's close.
 The Canadian currency had briefly weakened to C$0.9920 to
the U.S. dollar, or $1.0081, after the U.S. economic data. That
was still well off the week's lows above parity of C$1.0010 to
the U.S. dollar.
 Bradley said he expected a quiet afternoon of trading as
investors took stock of a wild week.
 "We've seen a lot of 400-point swings in the Dow this week
and a lot of people are beat up and exhausted, and looking
forward to the weekend."
 With investors moving back into riskier assets, bond prices
were mostly lower. Canada's two-year bond CA2YT=RR was off 6
Canadian cents to yield 0.941 percent, while the 10-year bond
CA10YT=RR was down 15 Canadian cents to yield 2.475 percent.
 Canadian bonds underperformed U.S. Treasuries, which were
supported by the dismal data there. [US/]
 Bonds fell even though more Canadian banks, which only last
month expected the Bank of Canada to resume tightening this
fall, pushed rate hike forecasts into next year.
[ID:nN1E77B0A0]
 Canadian overnight index swaps, which are based on
expectations for the Bank of Canada's key policy rate, have
largely priced a 25-basis-point rate cut by year-end. However,
the odds have been pared back in recent sessions as stocks
rallied. BOCWATCH
 "I don't think the market pricing is wildly unreasonable.
There is a far outside risk that the bank could cut in a real
emergency whereas it's very tough to see them raising rates,"
said Doug Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital
Markets.
 Porter said the Bank of Canada will likely remain on the
sidelines until the second quarter next year, and then raise
once per quarter in 2012.
 RBC Capital Markets said late on Thursday in a report that
based on current conditions, the priced-in rate cuts appear
"wholly unjustified." It also forecast the Bank of Canada will
delay its first rate hike until the second quarter of 2012.
 (Additional reporting by Ka Yan Ng; Editing by Jeffrey
Hodgson)