CANADA FX DEBT-C$ ends flat, bonds rise in safety bid

Mon Jun 28, 2010 5:08pm EDT
 
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   * C$ ends flat at 96.54 U.S. cents
 * Bonds firmer across the curve
 * G20 summit seen as "not earth-shattering, but solid"
 (Adds details)
 TORONTO, June 28 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar closed
little changed against the U.S. dollar on Monday after trading
in a muted range with few catalysts to spark a move and market
players preferring to wait for top-tier economic data later in
the week.
 The Canadian currency traded in a tight range between
C$1.0321 and C$1.0372 to the greenback, turning lower as
Toronto's main equity market accelerated declines on weakness
in commodities, especially a steep drop in gold prices. [.TO]
 The Canadian dollar finished at C$1.0358 to the U.S.
dollar, or 96.54 U.S. cents, a hair higher from Friday's close
at C$1.0359 to the U.S. dollar, or 96.53 U.S. cents.
 The week's key Canadian data, April GDP, is due on
Wednesday, while U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for June is due on
Friday.
 "The real action should happen towards the end of the
week," said John Curran, senior vice president at
CanadianForex.
 "People still have mixed feelings about the next interest
rate move given the numbers," he said.
 The market is now pricing in less of a chance, as measured
by overnight index swaps, that the Bank of Canada will raise
interest rates at its next policy announcement date on July 20.
A recent spate of weaker-than-expected economic data and
evidence of an uneven recovery across the globe have undermined
market confidence in the central bank's dedication to rate
hikes. BOCWATCH
 The currency was slightly firmer at the start of the
session after a relatively calm session overnight following the
weekend G20 summit of world leaders in Toronto that produced
results that were seen as "nothing particularly
earth-shattering, but solid, steady progress on most key
files," BMO Capital Markets said in a note to clients.
 The G20 countries agreed on Sunday to take different paths
to cutting budget deficits and making their banking systems
safer, a reflection of the uneven and fragile economic
recovery. [ID:nN27235152] For more stories on the G20 summit,
please see: [ID:nN18322198]
 BONDS GAIN AS STOCKS FALL
 Canadian government bond prices perked up as risk sentiment
flowed away from riskier stocks.
 The tenuous economic recovery highlighted at the weekend
summit and a batch of soft recent data have given bonds a shot
in the arm recently, with some market chatter emerging about
the chances of a double-dip recession in the United States.
That would put Canada's economy, which is closely tied to that
of the United States, at risk as well.
 "In terms of an outright double-dip I'd give it significant
chances given the serious risks we have in Europe especially,
but I wouldn't peg it at more than a 20 percent risk at this
stage," Doug Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital
Markets, said during a post-G20 panel with media on Monday.
 "Clearly if the U.S. went into an outright double dip,
Canada would have a very difficult time avoiding one
ourselves."
 The two-year government bond CA2YT=RR gained 7 Canadian
cents to yield 1.510 percent, while the 10-year bond
CA10YT=RR was up 25 Canadian cents to yield 3.168 percent.
 (Reporting by Ka Yan Ng; editing by Peter Galloway)