CANADA FX DEBT-C$ ends flat, bonds rise in safety bid
* C$ ends flat at 96.54 U.S. cents
* Bonds firmer across the curve
* G20 summit seen as "not earth-shattering, but solid" (Adds details)
TORONTO, June 28 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar closed little changed against the U.S. dollar on Monday after trading in a muted range with few catalysts to spark a move and market players preferring to wait for top-tier economic data later in the week.
The Canadian currency traded in a tight range between C$1.0321 and C$1.0372 to the greenback, turning lower as Toronto's main equity market accelerated declines on weakness in commodities, especially a steep drop in gold prices. [.TO]
The Canadian dollar finished at C$1.0358 to the U.S. dollar, or 96.54 U.S. cents, a hair higher from Friday's close at C$1.0359 to the U.S. dollar, or 96.53 U.S. cents.
The week's key Canadian data, April GDP, is due on Wednesday, while U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for June is due on Friday.
"The real action should happen towards the end of the week," said John Curran, senior vice president at CanadianForex.
"People still have mixed feelings about the next interest rate move given the numbers," he said.
The market is now pricing in less of a chance, as measured by overnight index swaps, that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates at its next policy announcement date on July 20. A recent spate of weaker-than-expected economic data and evidence of an uneven recovery across the globe have undermined market confidence in the central bank's dedication to rate hikes. BOCWATCH
The currency was slightly firmer at the start of the session after a relatively calm session overnight following the weekend G20 summit of world leaders in Toronto that produced results that were seen as "nothing particularly earth-shattering, but solid, steady progress on most key files," BMO Capital Markets said in a note to clients.
The G20 countries agreed on Sunday to take different paths to cutting budget deficits and making their banking systems safer, a reflection of the uneven and fragile economic recovery. [ID:nN27235152] For more stories on the G20 summit, please see: [ID:nN18322198]
BONDS GAIN AS STOCKS FALL
Canadian government bond prices perked up as risk sentiment flowed away from riskier stocks.
The tenuous economic recovery highlighted at the weekend summit and a batch of soft recent data have given bonds a shot in the arm recently, with some market chatter emerging about the chances of a double-dip recession in the United States. That would put Canada's economy, which is closely tied to that of the United States, at risk as well.
"In terms of an outright double-dip I'd give it significant chances given the serious risks we have in Europe especially, but I wouldn't peg it at more than a 20 percent risk at this stage," Doug Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, said during a post-G20 panel with media on Monday.
"Clearly if the U.S. went into an outright double dip, Canada would have a very difficult time avoiding one ourselves."
The two-year government bond CA2YT=RR gained 7 Canadian cents to yield 1.510 percent, while the 10-year bond CA10YT=RR was up 25 Canadian cents to yield 3.168 percent. (Reporting by Ka Yan Ng; editing by Peter Galloway)
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