UPDATE 2-Canadian oil output to more than double by 2030 -study

Wed Jun 5, 2013 4:12pm EDT
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* Canada crude output seen at 6.7 mln bpd by 2030

* 2015 oil production 3.9 mln bpd, 2020 at 4.9 mln bpd

* Study sees higher oil sand, conventional production

* 'Collection of pipelines' needed to handle additional oil

CALGARY, Alberta, June 5 (Reuters) - Canada's most influential oil lobby boosted its long-term forecast for the country's oil production as it expects higher output from the oil sands and a resurgence in conventional oil drilling despite near-term constraints on pipeline capacity.

The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) raised its estimate for 2030 production to 6.7 million barrels per day in a closely watched annual outlook for Canada's oil industry, up from 6.2 million bpd it forecast a year earlier.

Output from the United States' top energy supplier averaged 3.2 million bpd in 2012 and is expected to grow to 3.9 million bpd by 2015. By 2020, production will be 4.9 million bpd, 200,000 bpd more than CAPP estimated a year ago.

That growth will come even as the industry awaits U.S. approval for TransCanada Corp's contentious Keystone XL pipeline project.

Canada's oil production will bump up against the country's export pipeline capacity as soon as next year, according to the study. While rail shipments can take some of the excess production, new pipelines will be needed or the industry will see further discounting of Canadian oil as supply builds and is unable to reach markets.   Continued...