Record U.S. pork export growth to Mexico seen slowing in 2015
By Theopolis Waters
CHICAGO Jan 23 (Reuters) - Pork exports from the United States to Mexico, its biggest market, are likely to grow more slowly in 2015 after three years of record increases, as a deadly pig virus abates in both countries, industry experts said.
The flows south of the border have become a lucrative alternative for the world's leading pork exporter after it lost the Russian market following last year's rift between the West and Russia over Moscow's involvement in Crimea.
From January-November 2014, U.S. pork exports to Mexico totaled 617,000 metric tons (tonnes), worth a record $1.42 billion, up 10 and 31 percent respectively from 2013, based on the U.S. Department of Agriculture's most recent data.
Based on that, full-year 2014 exports should be 630,500 tonnes, up 12 percent from 2013, according to University of Missouri economist Ron Plain. He predicts 2015 sales to Mexico will be 649,000 tonnes, just a 3.1 percent bump from 2014.
The Colorado-based U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) puts total 2014 U.S. pork exports to Mexico at about 680,000 tonnes, an 8 percent rise from 2013, valued at $1.6 billion, up 28 percent, the third straight yearly record for both tonnage and value to Mexico.
The USMEF projected another record year for export volume to Mexico in 2015 but with growth at a more modest pace of 1.5 percent to about 690,000 tonnes.
Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv), which has killed an estimated 8.5 million pigs in the United States since May 2013, is one factor behind Mexico's aggressive buying so far in 2014.
The virus had spread to 17 of Mexico's 19 producer states by May 2014, according to an October report from the USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service in Mexico City. Continued...