BUZZ- Energy ETF: Poised for a change of fortune

Fri Aug 19, 2016 9:07am EDT
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** After being worst performing S&P 500 sector last year, energy now finds itself vying for 2016's top honor; and Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund bullish breakout suggests further run

** Energy 2nd best SPX sector YTD; up 16.50 pct, neck and neck with utilities 16.9 pct rise ; XLE up 17.1 pct in 2016

** Crude Oil's 85-pct surge off Feb trough, bringing YTD rise to 31 pct, a key XLE driver; 10-week log correlation with CLc1 running at 0.90

** That said, since late Jun lows, tech the star performer, 15.5 pct thrust vs energy's 8.5 pct rise

** But with Nasdaq 100 visit to record highs club short-lived , value may be poised for surprise resurgence vs growth, lead to narrowing of tech vs energy post-Brexit performance gap

** And XLE vaulting above inverse head & shoulders neckline looks positive (crude has similar pattern, though yet to take out trigger line). Chart:

** ETF rally to 50-pct and 61.8-pct Fibo retracements of 2014-2016 bear can target $75.72 and $81.81; inverse H&S calls for surprise longer-term advance to at least $91.00

** Back under $69.60 neckline can stall, but need $64.57/$63.49 break to see bullish potential evaporate

** Top XLE holdings by pct TNA end-Jun include Exxon Mobil , Chevron, and Schlumberger