CANADA FX DEBT-C$ firms as investors look to Bank of Canada

Mon Oct 20, 2014 9:31am EDT
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* Canadian dollar at C$1.1263 or 88.79 U.S. cents
    * Bond prices higher across the maturity curve

    By Leah Schnurr
    TORONTO, Oct 20 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar firmed
modestly against the greenback on Monday, boosted by figures
showing an unexpected rise in domestic wholesale trade in
August, while investors were looking ahead to the Bank of
Canada's policy statement later this week.
    Markets globally were calmer than last week, when investors
fled to safe havens on worries about the outlook for the world
economy. Those concerns drove the Canadian dollar to a more than
five-year low but it has clawed back some gains since then.
    Data showed Canadian wholesale trade rose 0.2 percent in
August to the second-highest level ever. The figures surpassed
market expectations for a decline of 0.2 percent.
    The week's main event, however, will be the monetary policy
statement from the Bank of Canada due on Wednesday. The bank
will also update its economic forecasts and is widely expected
to hold its key interest rate at 1 percent, where it has been
for four years.
    The central bank is seen likely to keep sending a cautious
message, particularly in light of last week's market turmoil,
even after data last week showed inflation in September was at
the bank's 2 percent target. 
    "They'll be pointing to global growth concerns, sagging oil
prices, stock market volatility as reasons to maintain their
current dovish stance," said Don Mikolich, executive director of
foreign exchange sales at CIBC World Markets in Toronto.
    "I don't know if the market will necessarily react too
negatively to it. We've come to expect that tone a bit, and
certainly with the environment around it, it would seem
justified," Mikolich said.
    The Canadian dollar was at C$1.1263 to the
greenback, or 88.79 U.S. cents, stronger than Friday's close of
C$1.1277, or 88.68 U.S. cents.
    The loonie fell as far as C$1.1385 last week, its lowest
since July 2009. The previous low for 2014 had been hit in
    In the near term, the greenback is likely to see resistance
around C$1.13 to C$1.1330 against the loonie and support around
C$1.1230 to C$1.1185, Mikolich said.
    "Most forecasts still continue to have C$1.14s and above
over the next couple quarters at least, so it would seem
inevitable that we're due to spend some time up there," he said.
    Canadian government bond prices were higher across the
maturity curve, with the two-year up 1-1/2 Canadian
cents to yield 0.970 percent and the benchmark 10-year
 up 22 Canadian cents to yield 1.927 percent.

 (Editing by Peter Galloway)