What to Watch in the Week Ahead and on Monday, Oct. 13

Fri Oct 10, 2014 4:29pm EDT
 
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(The Day Ahead is an email and PDF publication that includes the day's major stories and events, analyses and other features. To receive The Day Ahead, Eikon users can register at . Thomson One users can register at RT/DAY/US. All times in ET/GMT) WEEK AHEAD Investors look forward to a week full of earnings reports that could either push the market lower, through more key technical levels, or stem some of the recent selling in what's been an overall volatile period for the markets. Big banks including Wells Fargo and American Express report along with Intel and other bellwethers. The bond market should continue to benefit from safe-haven flows and expectations that the Fed will keep taking things slow, and the dollar's direction is a mixed one, but should rebound a bit from weakness this week if investors get signals of more strong economic figures in the United States. Internet ad titan Google releases third-quarter earnings on Thursday after the bell. The undisputed king of traditional Internet advertising is struggling to meet Wall Street expectations as it begins to delve deeper into mobile ads, an area where Facebook and Twitter are also vying. The company missed targets last quarter after a run of consistent performance, so investors will be watching both paid clicks (a measure of volume) and cost-per-click (generally, prices) when it reports quarterly earnings. JPMorgan Chase & Co, the biggest U.S. bank by assets, will release third-quarter results and begin a conference call with analysts before the stock market opens on Tuesday. The conference call is expected to be CEO Jamie Dimon's first with securities analysts since undergoing treatment for throat cancer during the summer. The announcement will come during a morning in which the third- and fourth-biggest banks, Citigroup and Wells Fargo, also plan to announce and discuss their third-quarter results. Wells Fargo will likely show an improvement in its home loan unit after suffering four straight quarters of declines. Bank of America, the second-largest U.S. bank, will likely report on Wednesday a loss for the third quarter after it takes a $5.3 billion charge to cover part of the $16.65 billion settlement it reached with U.S. authorities. Despite the expense of the settlement, it largely lifted the cloud of legal uncertainty over the bank, so the state of its underlying businesses will take center stage for the first time in years. The world's biggest credit card issuer, American Express's, third-quarter results on Wednesday are expected to beat estimates, according to StarMine, helped by lower loan-loss reserves and a rise in consumer spending. American Express's growth depends mostly on its affluent customers, people who have been pretty consistent with their spending in spite of the global recession. Another credit card issuer, Capital One Financial also posts third-quarter results on Thursday. The company is expected to benefit from lower credit losses and increased spending in the United States as more people use cards to make payments. Goldman Sachs will report earnings for the third quarter on Thursday before the bell. Higher revenue from stock underwriting and a smaller decline in fixed-income trading spurred the bank's second-quarter earnings. Morgan Stanley will report earnings for the third quarter on Friday before the bell. It was another strong quarter for investment banking activity on Wall Street, though trading businesses are still experiencing light volumes. Now that the bank has more than half of its revenue coming from wealth and asset management, that will help offset any weakness in trading. Investors will be watching to see whether Morgan Stanley gets closer to targets for improving return-on-equity and boosting profitability within wealth management. On Friday, the U.S. Commerce Department issues Housing Starts for September, which declined 14.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual 956,000-unit pace in August. On Thursday, the Labor Department issues weekly Jobless Claims numbers. The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise by 3,000 to 290,000. The Commerce Department is scheduled to issue the data for retail sales for September. Retail sales, which increased 0.6 percent last month, is likely to drop by 0.1 percent in September. Separately, on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve issues its so-called Beige Book, a compendium of anecdotes on the health of the economy drawn from the central bank's sources across the nation. On Friday, General Electric's third-quarter earnings are expected to be driven by higher sales of its jet engines and oil and gas equipment, as the U.S. conglomerate tries to convince investors of its strategy of becoming a more-focused infrastructure company, with improved profit margins and a simpler organization. Analysts will look for updates on recent transactions, including GE's $16.9 billion deal for the power assets of France's Alstom, spin-off of its North American credit card business, and sale of its appliances unit, which are designed to give GE more exposure to industrial businesses. GE's shares have underperformed the broader U.S. indices this year. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen speaks on Friday before the "Inequality of Economic Opportunity in the United States" conference in Boston. Separately, on Thursday Yellen tours CONNECT facility and meets with consortium leaders and local residents to hear about conditions in the local economy and the impact of CONNECT for residents entering or re-enter the workforce. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley gives introductory remarks and presides over a dinner of the Economic Club of New York on Wednesday. Other speakers include Peterson Foundation Chairman and CEO Peter Peterson and former Federal Reserve chairs Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser speaks on the economic outlook before the Lehigh Valley Partnership, Lehigh Valley Economic Development Meeting on Thursday. Separately, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart and Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George give welcome and opening remarks before the "Transforming U.S. Workforce Development Policies for the 21st Century" conference. BlackRock Inc, the world's largest money manager, is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings results on Wednesday before the market opens. Analysts expect the New York-based asset manager, which now manages more than $4 trillion in assets, to earn $4.69 per share, up from $3.88 per share a year earlier. Johnson & Johnson is the first big pharma company to report third-quarter earnings on Tuesday, in which profit is expected to have increased. The company's Olysio treatment for hepatitis C may once again be a bright spot - it helped the company beat Wall Street expectations last quarter - even as its Olysio sales are expected to drop sharply in coming months when it is likely to be supplanted by a new treatment from competitor Gilead. On Thursday, investors will have an eye on UnitedHealth Group, the first managed care company to report on the third quarter. UnitedHealth's earnings are expected to be about flat from a year ago, a reflection of the government's tough line on payments for Medicare services and less growth in the employer-based healthcare services business. One bright spot is once again expected to be its Optum unit, which includes healthcare technology and specialty pharmacy benefit management. Chipmaker Intel Corp posts third-quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Intel will most likely have enjoyed a bit of a topline boost in the last quarter when PC sales trickled back in its largest U.S. market, but the industry bellwether's guidance will attract more scrutiny, coming as it does after a string of smaller semiconductor industry players have warned of lackluster results. Separately, Cypress Semiconductor is likely to report a better-than-expected third-quarter profit on Thursday, according to StarMine data. Analysts are looking for the company to start delivering revenue growth in this quarter and for the second half of the year. On Friday, Honeywell is expected to post third-quarter revenue growth of 4 percent, with the biggest sales jump in its performance materials and technologies unit that makes chemicals used in oil and other sectors. Honeywell's shares have held up better this year than those of rival U.S. diversified manufacturers. The company has signaled its plans to get more aggressive with acquisitions over the next few years. Effective with this report, Honeywell is posting its transportation business that makes turbochargers inside its aerospace division. Textron, the maker of Bell helicopters and Cessna business jets, is expected to post higher third-quarter revenue and profit on Friday, helped by a rise in deliveries of business jets. With improving business confidence, deliveries of business jets are expected to rise, while those of bell helicopters are expected to drop or remain flat due to lower government spending. Investors will be looking for details on 2015 outlook. Oilfield services providers Schlumberger Ltd and Baker Hughes Inc are expected to report higher profits for the third quarter on Thursday. The results will put the spotlight on a recent recovery in drilling activity in North America, following a two-year slump. Higher revenue and margins in North America are expected to help the companies offset weakness in Russia and Iraq, where drilling activity has been subdued due to geopolitical tensions. Schlumberger, which generates about 4 to 5 percent of its revenue from Russia, warned in August that U.S. and EU sanctions against Russia would hurt its third-quarter profit by as much as 3 cents per share. Schlumberger is more heavily dependent on revenue from international operations than Baker Hughes, whose operations are nearly all concentrated in North America. Baker Hughes is also expected to benefit from a seasonal rebound in activity in Canada. Memory chipmaker SanDisk Corp is expected to report third-quarter revenue and profit above estimates on Thursday. Analysts are expecting strong growth in solid state drives, but are becoming more cautious on NAND suppliers, after the Chinese government said it would source 40 percent of its semiconductors domestically. Separately, programmable chipmaker Xilinix Inc is expected to report second-quarter revenue and profit on the same day in line with analysts' estimates, according to StarMine data, which may reflect a slowdown in the semiconductor market. Analysts will be looking at how the company's collaboration with China Mobile to deploy LTE basestations is panning out. Investors are also keen to know how Xilinx's new products are faring against competitor Altera's. On Tuesday, Omnicom Group, the No.1 U.S. advertising company, is likely to report third-quarter profit above analysts' estimates, according to StarMine, helped by higher ad spending in the United States. In July, the company said it was sticking with its annual organic revenue growth target, showing little effect from its aborted $35 billion merger with France's Publicis Group. Investors will look forward to updates on full-year forecast and management commentary on ad spending trends. Netflix will reveal its latest subscriber numbers when the video streaming service reports third-quarter results after U.S. markets close on Wednesday. The company is expected to provide an update on its recent launch into major European countries and its new push into original movies. Wall Street analysts project Netflix will report earnings per share of 90 cents for the September quarter, up from 52 cents a year earlier. Baxter International, the medical device and drugmaker will be reporting a third-quarter profit on Thursday, which is likely to beat estimates for the fourth straight quarter, three months into selling its vaccines business to Pfizer Inc. Baxter's medical products business, which includes intravenous fluid systems, dialysis, biosurgery and some specialty pharmaceuticals such as anesthesia and nutrition, has traditionally helped the company beat estimates. The company, which plans to spin off its biotechnology operations next year, had earlier raised its full-year adjusted profit forecast to $5.10-$5.20 per share from $5.05-$5.25. Mattel reports third-quarter results on Thursday before the bell. A lack of innovation and a sluggish response to competition has crimped growth at the toymaker, leading it to lose its mantle of being the world's largest toymaker to Lego. Mattel says it has taken several steps to be better positioned for the holiday season with a slew of launches in the back half of the year, but that can only be seen when the holiday season ends. Investors will be keen on hearing details about the new toy launches and how the company is ramping up production to meet holiday season demand from retailers. Kansas City Southern, the railroad operator, is expected to report higher third-quarter revenue and profits as it was likely to ship more agriculture products and automobiles. Kansas City Southern operates on a unique, north-south route in central U.S. and derives half of its annual revenue from cross-border trade with Mexico, which rose during the quarter. Investors will be looking for an update on 2015 outlook. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, formed from the merger between Italian auto group Fiat and its U.S. unit Chrysler, will list on the NYSE in a bid to boosts its investor pool and get access to a wider range of equity and debt financing sources. The merged group will have a secondary listing in Milan. Chief Executive Sergio Marchionne said that a decision on any capital increase would be made at the end of October. After rebuffing Rupert Murdoch's offer, Time Warner Chief Executive Jeff Bewkes will face investors on Wednesday to make the case that Time Warner is better off going it alone rather than combining with Fox. Bewkes will lay out his five-year vision for each division: the troubled Turner Broadcasting, movie studio Warner Bros., and pay TV juggernaut HBO. Briefing documents from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) staff will give investors an idea of what the agency has in store for Pfizer's controversial quit-smoking drug Chantix. The drug, which was approved in 2006, has since seen only trouble with questions about its safety. The documents, on Tuesday will hint at the FDA's thoughts on whether it needs to take additional steps on the suicidal side-effects. The Advisory Committee will vote on the same on Oct. 16. Separately, on the same day FDA will give its preliminary view on Novartis AG's marketing application for its plaque psoriasis drug. Fiber network company Zayo Group Holdings' IPO is expected to raise about $694 million on Friday, valuing the company at up to $5.7 billion. Zayo, whose rivals include CenturyLink and Equinix, has a network covering about 300 countries, connecting the largest U.S. and European cities. The company's revenue almost tripled to about $1 billion in 2013, but net loss widened to $137.2 million from $1.2 million a year earlier. The IPO of Great Western Bancorp, the U.S. subsidiary of National Australia Bank, is expected to raise about $384 million, valuing the lender at up to $1.4 billion. NAB, Australia's No. 4 lender by market value, acquired regional lender Great Western in 2008 for just below $1 billion to get more involved in funding agribusiness in the United States. Great Western has about 200 locations in several states including Arizona and Colorado and has assets in excess of $8 billion. Great Western will be the latest to join a string of financial institutions listing this year, including Ally Financial, investor Wilbur Ross-backed Talmer Bancorp and Royal Bank of Scotland Group's U.S. unit, Citizens Financial. On Wednesday, Chris Chadwick, president and CEO of Boeing Defense, Space & Security, will speak at a forum on defense and security hosted by the Center for a New American Security. Other participants include Christine Fox, assistant director for policy and analysis at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, and retired Air Force Gen. Charles Wald, vice chairman and senior adviser at Deloitte Services. Statistics Canada will release the inflation data for September on Friday. Canada's annual inflation rate was steady at 2.1 percent in August, but the closely watched core rate unexpectedly jumped above the 2-percent threshold. On Friday, Mexico's jobless data will reveal how the unemployment rate fared in September, after falling in August to 4.87 percent when adjusted for seasonal swings. On the same day, Peru's central bank posts the August trade balance. The global minerals exporter has logged a $2.61 billion trade deficit in the first seven months of 2014 as its mineral shipments have tumbled.

MONDAY, OCTOBER 13 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans speaks on current economic conditions and monetary policy before the National Council on Teacher Retirement 92nd Annual Conference (1230/1630). The IBGE, a Brazilian government statistics agency, releases August retail sales numbers. Retail sales posted their biggest monthly decline in nearly six years in July (0800/1200). Separately, Brazil's central bank releases results of a weekly economic survey with more than 100 financial institutions. This will include forecasts for GDP, interest rates and inflation rates. (All analysts' estimates are according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S/) (Compiled by Sourav Bose in Bangalore; Edited by Maju Samuel)