BUZZ-Poor earnings key risk to APAC Ex Japan's counter-trend rally

Wed Nov 4, 2015 1:19am EST
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** Counter-trend rally in Asia Pacific Ex Japan (APxJ) may draw to a close as quarterly earnings disappoint ahead of expected Fed lift-off in Dec.

** So far, APxJ aggregate Sept-quarter net income has missed consensus estimates by 6.5 pct - Morgan Stanley

** This will likely be the 12th time in the last 14 quarters where APxJ has missed consensus net income estimates underscoring headwinds from a stronger dollar and lower commodities prices, the broker adds

** MSCI APxJ is up 12.3 pct since Sept. end lows vs 11.3 pct gain in MSCI World, even as primary trend remains down since April-May peak

** Asia Ex Japan's earnings season thus far has offered little by way of a needed tailwind for the U.S. dollar denominated EPS consensus, leaving recent upgrades dependent upon fickle FX translation effects - Nomura

** While non-Japan Asia has been missing on EPS estimates for as long as one can remember, the surprise in this reporting season is that Japan has missed it too - Credit Suisse

** MSCI China, Taiwan, India and Australia have so far bucked the weak trend in earnings

** Strong earnings came from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Alibaba, Baidu, Ping An Insurance, China Mobile, Dr.Reddy's , Maruti Suzuki, Reliance Industries and Samsung Electronics (RM: