FOREX-Euro dips before ECB meeting, kiwi sinks

Thu Mar 10, 2016 4:09am EST
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* All eyes on ECB rate decision and Draghi news conference

* Interest rate cut firmly priced in, question is what else

* RBNZ surprises with interest rate cut, signals more easing

By Patrick Graham

LONDON, March 10 (Reuters) - The euro fell around a third of a cent against the dollar on Thursday, anticipating further policy easing by the European Central Bank, while the New Zealand dollar hit a two-week low after a surprise rate cut there.

Expectations are high that ECB policymakers will deliver a telling blow in the central bank's campaign to get inflation rising again and drag the euro zone economy out of the mire after eight years of weak growth.

But senior currency sales managers at a handful of major banks say that speculators are probably only about a third as much engaged on the euro as they were before a December decision that underwhelmed and left many investments underwater.

"The ECB will probably try to deliver more than the market expects to get a real effect from these measures. That means that besides the rate cut that seems to be priced in by markets, we will get something on the QE side," said Daniel Trum, a currency strategist with the wealth management arm of giant Swiss group UBS.

"But we also acknowledge that there is a risk that they under-deliver as in December, and that would obviously strengthen the euro."   Continued...