TABLE-OECD trims U.S., China forecast; lifts UK, France, Germany

Tue Sep 3, 2013 5:00am EDT
 
Email This Article |
Share This Article
  • Facebook
  • LinkedIn
  • Twitter
| Print This Article
[-] Text [+]

PARIS, Sept 3 (Reuters) - Following are updated forecasts from the
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) for growth in the
world's main developed economies in 2013 and the year's third and fourth
quarters.
    The annual forecasts are based on a narrower scope of data and different
models than those used in the OECD's May Economic Outlook, and are therefore not
perfectly comparable.
    The quarterly GDP forecasts are for annualised, quarter-on-quarter growth
and are based on GDP releases and high-frequency indicators published up to
Sept. 2. Data are seasonally and in some cases also working-day adjusted.  
                Annualised q/q pct change       Avg annual   May f'cast
                                                pct change   
            12Q4   13Q1   13Q2   13Q3   13Q4    2012  2013*        2013
 United       0.1    1.1    2.5    2.5    2.7    2.8    1.7         1.9
 States                                                      
 China        7.8    6.6    7.0    7.2    8.1    7.8    7.4         7.8
 Euro 3**    -2.0   -0.8    1.6    1.3    1.4    0.4    0.4         N/A
 Japan        1.0    3.8    2.6    2.6    2.4    2.0    1.6         1.6
 Germany     -1.8      0    2.9    2.3    2.4    0.9    0.7         0.4
 France      -0.7   -0.6    1.9    1.4    1.6    0.0    0.3        -0.3
 Italy       -3.7   -2.2   -1.0   -0.4   -0.3   -2.4   -1.8        -1.8
 UK          -0.9    1.1    2.9    3.7    3.2    0.2    1.5         0.8
 Canada***    0.9    2.2    1.7    4.8    2.5    1.7    2.0         1.4
 
* Annual growth numbers for 2013 are derived by applying the indicator model
forecasts for the third and fourth quarters to the outcome for the first two
quarters. See Appendix for underpinnings and status of the interim forecast.
** Weighted average of Germany, France and Italy.
*** The indicator model forecasts for Q3 and Q4 2013 have been adjusted for the
impact of the floods in Alberta and strikes in Quebec in June, based in part on
estimates in the Bank of Canada's July Monetary Policy Report.

 (Reporting by Leigh Thomas Editing by Jeremy Gaunt)