Leno's new show pegged a winner by research firm

Tue Jul 28, 2009 8:40pm EDT
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By Anthony Crupi

NEW YORK (Mediaweek) - The fall TV season is still a good two months down the road, but a New York-based research company already has a bead on which new shows are likely to break out of the pack in 2009-10.

After subjecting the fall slate to a comprehensive review, NewMediaMetrics' predictive analysis suggests that CBS' "NCIS: Los Angeles" should scare up big ratings Tuesdays at 9 p.m. while NBC's "The Jay Leno Show" could prove to be a powerhouse at 10 p.m., particularly on Tuesdays.

Also promising: ABC's sci-fi "FlashForward," which leads off the network's Thursday lineup; NBC's Monday 9 p.m. hospital drama "Trauma"; Fox's "Family Guy" spinoff "The Cleveland Show," set for Sundays at 8:30 p.m.; and the CW's "Vampire Diaries," which will hold down the Wednesday 8 p.m. slot.

Other new series flagged by NewMediaMetrics are ABC's "The Forgotten," Fox musical comedy "Glee" and the one-two punch of "Cougar Town" and "Eastwick," which will cap ABC's Wednesday lineup this fall.

Including midseason replacements "V" and "Happy Town," ABC boasts nine of the top 20 new shows, according to NMM analysis. This season marks the fifth in which the researcher has predicted the outcome of the fall schedule; last year, NMM's picks resulted in an 86.4 percent accuracy rate.

NMM's success rate has been steady since it first began calling the outcome of the fall broadcast season in 2005. That year, the company predicted that Fox's "Prison Break" and CBS' "Criminal Minds" would be breakout hits; meanwhile, it gave low marks to the largely forgotten NBC ensemble drama "Inconceivable" and Fox' "Head Cases," which was yanked after two episodes.

Of the projected top 20 new shows, six are spinoffs or revisitations of long-ago properties. Leno's new show is the fall's "known unknown": The host is a familiar property, although the new format remains something of an enigma.

In addition to Tuesdays, NMM believes the variety show will get good traction on Thursday nights. (Those shows will benefit from a wealth of high-profile film talent, as the studios will trot out their A-listers on the eve of films' openings.)   Continued...

<p>Jay Leno hosts the 30th Carousel of Hope gala in Beverly Hills, California October 25, 2008. REUTERS/Mario Anzuoni</p>