Golden Globe nominations don't ensure Oscar love

Tue Dec 15, 2009 1:08am EST
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By Gregg Kilday

LOS ANGELES (Hollywood Reporter) - Before dawn even cracks Tuesday, the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. will have announced its Golden Globe contenders for the best films of the year, and Academy Award prognosticators will be looking for harbingers of the Oscar nominations, which won't be announced until February 2.

The big question this awards season is how the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences' decision to double its best-picture category to 10 nominees will play out. Will the Academy voters make room for crowd-pleasers, or will they reach even further down into the realm of critically approved specialty fare?

So, amid the first rush of Globes fanfare, it will be tempting to look at their five nominees for best drama and five for best comedy/musical and declare them the likely front-runners to become the Academy Ten.

But don't go there.

For even though the HFPA places 10 bets in its two best picture categories, it hasn't done all that convincing a job in years past of predicting the Academy's five best picture nominees. Why should its record improve now that the Academy has upped its ante?

Consider: During the past 10 years, the 10 (and sometimes more) Globe best picture nominees included all five of the Academy's best picture nominees only 50% of the time.

And some years, not only did the Globes not go 10-for-5, their predictive value was problematic. Out of the class of 1999 and 2005, the Globes nominated only two films each year that were included in the Academy's top five. And while the Globes almost always do manage to include the movie that goes on to win the best picture Oscar, 2005 was particularly infamous since the HFPA failed to nominate "Crash," which went on to take the top Oscar.

Statistically, the Globes' 10-picture advantage hasn't helped it in foreshadowing the Academy's choice all that much. During the past decade, the Globes nominated 104 movies for best picture -- it tossed extra nominations into its best drama pot in 2000, 2004 and 2007 -- but out of those, only 40 went on to get an Oscar best picture benediction.   Continued...