SCENARIOS: Which U.S. states may legalize gay marriage next

Tue May 26, 2009 4:49pm EDT
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By Jason Szep

BOSTON (Reuters) - California's top court upheld a voter-approved ban on same-sex marriage on Tuesday, but efforts to advance such unions are expanding in other U.S. states.

Below are scenarios for same-sex marriage in the United States.


Gay rights advocates in the most populous U.S. state plan to resume their fight and go back to voters either next year or in 2012 in a bid to repeal Proposition 8, which defines marriage as between a man and a woman and was passed in November 2008 elections.

The timing for such a vote depends on two things -- expected voter turnout in upcoming elections and how long gay rights advocates reckon they need to campaign.

Some activists said the last campaign failed because it was too short. They had half a year to make a case -- from last May, when the state supreme court ruled that barring gay marriage was unconstitutional, until the November 4 elections.

"What folks in California are doing is assessing a number of factors including when to bring this back to the ballot -- whether it will be in 2010 or 2012," Joe Solmonese, president of gay rights advocates the Human Rights Campaign in Washington, said in an interview.

"And that calculation has everything to do with the voter turnout scenario and which one would be most advantageous."   Continued...