BUZZ-IBM: semis pain, big blue's gain

Thu Apr 23, 2015 1:21pm EDT
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** IBM appears to be biggest beneficiary of the rollover in semis as money moving out of chipmakers and into stock pushes it to a 2015 high and close to breaking above its 200-day moving average for the first time in 6 months

** Stock up 3.4 pct, accounts for roughly half the Dow's gain.

** It still has some way to go to fill the large gap that opened up on the charts following the 7 pct one-day slide in Oct last year.

** A decisive close and break above it could see momentum lift shares further

** Expectations low on IBM earnings. Following a 12th successive dip in quarterly sales analysts are cutting forecasts and the mean EPS estimate for the July quarter is down 5.3 pct over the past month

** Yet with semis getting hit hard, investors seeking shelter in a low-beta large-cap trading at 15 pct discount to its 10-year historical median P/E

** SOX down as much as 2 pct after weak results from industry bellwethers

** Bounce in IBM could be short term, however, once semis stabilize as company's fundamentals, which remain lacklustre, come back into focus (RM: