BUZZ-Twitter: Charts not much to chirp about

Tue Oct 11, 2016 10:39am EDT
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** Twitter recovery off its May 2016 low has turned volatile amid possible deal chatter. Nevertheless, severe bear trend still intact, suggesting shares destined for new lows

** TWTR shares peaked shortly after their stellar late-2013 debut; since, protracted bear has stock down 76 pct. Chart:

** Stalled rev growth and moribund MAU data continues to dog stock

** Co attempting to bolster user experience with push into live video, but remains to be seen if enough to kickstart user trends, grow revs

** Meanwhile, late-Sept takeover chatter caused sharp upward thrust, only to see rally erased once reports surfaced potential suitors unlikely to make bid

** Sentiment of 42 covering analysts essentially neutral, but $16.00 median PT calls for 10 pct drop; this, while, Thomson Reuters StarMine model pegs intrinsic value at $9.54, a 46-pct discount to last price

** TWTR now especially jittery, rumor-driven, buffeted by frequent daily gaps

** However, bearish reversal from $25.25 followed by more significant weekly gap down, suggests stock will pressure its $13.73 low then $12.06/$10.77 Fibo proj zone ; risk to additional Fibo proj at $3.91

** $19.72/$21.10 can hinder strength. TWTR needs to fly over resistance, in $28.35/$31.87 area, to suggest something more than just another counter-trend bounce