Analysis: As growth wanes, Amazon begins to show Wall Street the money

Thu Jan 31, 2013 11:57am EST
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By Alistair Barr

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - After a spending spree in recent years pushed Inc's net results into the loss column, investors are betting that the company is tightening the purse strings and focusing on delivering a solid profit.

Investors have watched with growing consternation since 2010, as the world's biggest online retailer spent billions erecting warehouses, amassing computer servers, buying video content and manufacturing tablets. Analysts say Amazon is emerging from that supercharged investment phase just as growth of its core retail business slows.

On Tuesday, it blew past expectations for quarterly operating income and gross margins. That propped up the bull case that the company has put in place many of the necessary pieces to its profit puzzle.

Despite missing revenue expectations for the crucial holiday season, Amazon shares set a record in late trading on Tuesday after the results. The stock was up almost 5 percent on Wednesday and down 1 percent at $270.17 in morning action on Thursday.

"When the investment phase winds down, there will be dramatic room for margin expansion," said Mark Mahaney, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets. "Whether we're at the end I don't know for sure, and the company is not signaling that. But my guess is that we are."

Year-over-year expense growth peaked in the middle of 2011 at 64 percent. In the fourth-quarter of 2012, expenses were up 42 percent compared to a year earlier, according to Matt Nemer, an analyst at Wells Fargo.

Tellingly, fourth-quarter 2012 expenses grew more slowly than gross profits for the first time in 10 quarters, he noted.

"What investors are buying now is the profit that will come as Amazon comes out of its current investment cycle," he said.   Continued...

A worker packs boxes at Amazon's logistics centre in Graben near Augsburg December 17, 2012. REUTERS/Michael Dalder