September 22, 2010 / 5:36 PM / in 10 years

CANADA FX DEBT-C$ resumes slide as oil, retail data weigh

   * Canada July retail sales slip unexpectedly
 * Oil price turnaround pressures C$
 * C$ falls to 96.69 U.S. cents, bonds remain firm
 (Adds details, analyst comment)
 TORONTO, Sept 22 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar slid
against the U.S. currency on Wednesday, pressured by a reversal
in the price of oil and renewed fears that the domestic economy
is stumbling after disappointing retail sales data.
 Data showed Canadian retail sales fell unexpectedly in
July, the fourth straight month of flat or declining sales. The
slide suggest the consumer is no longer one of the main drivers
of the recovery and could give the Bank of Canada another
reason to take a break from its interest-rate increases.
 A stronger price of oil had earlier wiped out the
currency's data-related losses, but then became a pressure
point when oil reversed its gains after inventory data showed a
rise in crude and oil product stocks. [O/R]
 It rebounded but never matched a six-week high hit
overnight at C$1.0191 to the U.S. dollar, or 98.13 U.S. cents.
At 1:13 p.m. (1713 GMT), the currency CAD=D3  was at C$1.0342
to the U.S. dollar, or 96.69 U.S. cents, down from Tuesday's
finish at C$1.0268 to the U.S. dollar, or 97.39 U.S. cents.
 "The Canadian dollar rally ended rather abruptly," said
Michael O'Neill, managing director at Knightsbridge Foreign
 "It failed spectacularly at C$1.02 in part because of (an)
option barrier being defended. Disappointing retail sales data
added to the sentiment and widespread selling of Canada against
the crosses."
 Statistics Canada said total retail sales in July edged 0.1
percent lower, instead of the 0.6 percent rise expected by the
market. The June retail sales figure was also revised lower to
show a flat reading versus the 0.1 percent gain Statscan
initially estimated. [ID:nN22229778]
 "Overall, it was just a very soft data release and it
followed already two other weak data releases for July --
wholesale sales and manufacturing sales," said Matthew Strauss,
senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets.
 "July is setting up to be a quite disappointing month and
next week's GDP numbers will probably confirm that it's a
pretty slow start to the third quarter."
 The retail figures prompted market players to further price
out chances of more hikes by the Bank of Canada, providing a
boost to government bond prices.
 Market pricing, as measured by a Reuters calculation of
yield on overnight index swaps, indicated about a 76 percent
likelihood of no change in interest rates at the Bank of
Canada's policy-decision date next month, up from around 64
percent on Tuesday afternoon. BOCWATCH
 The two-year bond was up 1 Canadian cent to yield 1.454
percent, while the 10-year bond gained 45 Canadian cents to
yield 2.845 percent.
 (Reporting by Ka Yan Ng; editing by Rob Wilson)

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