July 25, 2017 / 9:20 PM / a month ago

CANADA FX DEBT-C$ holds near 14-month highs as rally stalls, Fed in focus

    * Canadian dollar at C$1.2505 or 79.97 U.S. cents
    * Bond prices lower across the maturity curve
    * U.S.-Canada two-year bond yield spread narrowest since Oct
2015
    * Two-year bond yield highest in over five years

    By Solarina Ho
    TORONTO, July 25 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar was steady
against the greenback on Tuesday after briefly touching a
14-month high, as the U.S. currency pared earlier losses ahead
of the Federal Reserve's next policy announcement.
    The Canadian dollar, which has gained some 10 percent since
early May, failed to crack C$1.2480 against the U.S. dollar, or
80.13 U.S. cents, after breaching C$1.25 on Monday, even as oil
prices rallied 3 percent.
    "I think we stalled out here a little bit. We've had three
good go's at breaking the C$1.2480 level," said Shaun Osborne,
chief currency strategist at Scotiabank, who maintaining a
C$1.28 year-end forecast.
    "After a 10 percent rally in the CAD, it's probably getting
close to the end of the road."
    Osborne noted that the U.S. dollar tended to rally during
the second half of the year, and that the Canadian dollar also
appeared to be "completely disconnected" from the price of crude
oil, a key Canadian export.
    At 4 p.m. (2000 GMT), the Canadian dollar          was
trading at C$1.2505, or 79.97 U.S. cents, little changed from
Monday's close.
    The currency's strongest level of the session was CC$1.2481,
while its weakest level was C$1.2533.
    The next key level to watch is C$1.2461, or 80.25 U.S.
cents, reached in May 2016.
    The U.S. dollar, which earlier touched a 13-month low
against a basket of major currencies, has fallen nearly 4
percent over the past month and more than 8 percent this year.
    The Fed began its meeting on Tuesday, but the market was not
expecting a change in interest rates. Investors remained wary of
the short-term U.S. economic outlook amid uncertainty
surrounding the U.S. healthcare vote and an investigation into
allegations of Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. election.
      
    In Canada, markets have fully priced in the expectation that
the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates one more time by
the end of the year.           
    The spread between yields of Canadian and U.S. 2-year bonds
has narrowed sharply since early June and was at 6.8 basis
points, its narrowest since October 2015.
    Canadian government bond prices were lower across the
maturity curve, with the two-year            down 8.5 Canadian
cents to yield 1.322 percent and the benchmark 10-year
            down 80 Canadian cents to yield 2.018 percent. 
    The two-year bond yield was at its highest in more than five
years, while the 10-year bond yield was at its highest since
Nov. 2014.

 (Reporting by Solarina Ho; Editing by Peter Cooney)
  
 

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