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U.S. natgas futures slip as the hot weather moderates

    Aug 12 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 2% on Wednesday on forecasts for demand to
slowly decline now that the hottest part of the summer is past.
    That move lower came despite a drop in output this week due to pipeline maintenance and a steady
increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.
    Front-month gas futures fell 3.6 cents, or 1.7%, to $2.135 per million British thermal units
at 8:25 a.m. EDT (1225 GMT). That puts the contract on track for its lowest level since the start of
August and down about 5% from last week's highest close since December.
    Although U.S. and European gas contracts mostly trade on their own fundamentals, a 6% drop in prices
at the European Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in the Netherlands on Wednesday
weighed on U.S. gas.
    For the month, however, TTF was still up 35%, which made it profitable for more U.S. LNG to go to
Europe.
    U.S. LNG exports were on track to rise in August for the first time in six months. Pipeline gas
flowing to the plants climbed to 4.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far this month from a 21-month
low of 3.3 bcfd in July. Buyers canceled dozens of cargoes in July, the most of any month so far.

    Refinitiv projected U.S. demand, including exports, will slip from an average of 89.3 bcfd this week
to 88.8 bcfd next week as the hot weather moderates.
    U.S. output is on track to fall about 2.2 bcfd to a near one-month low of 87.4 bcfd over the past
two days due mostly to maintenance work this week on TC Energy Corp's Mountaineer Xpress
pipeline in West Virginia, according to preliminary data from Refinitiv that is subject to change later
in the day.
                
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                           Aug 7         Jul 31       Jul 31     average    
                                        (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Jul 31    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +52            +33          +51         +44 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              2              1            1           4            4
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             213            217          211         192          183
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             215            218          212         196          187
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              88.3           89.0         89.1        92.6         79.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.7            6.8          6.7         7.8          8.0
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                         95.0           95.8         95.8       100.4         87.3
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.1            1.9          1.9         2.9          2.2
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.8            5.6          5.7         5.4          4.4
 U.S. LNG Exports                          3.9            4.4          4.6         4.1          2.0
 U.S. Commercial                           4.4            4.4          4.5         4.4          4.5
 U.S. Residential                          3.6            3.5          3.5         3.5          3.3
 U.S. Power Plant                          40.5           41.5         40.4        42.5         36.6
 U.S. Industrial                           21.4           21.5         21.6        21.5         20.6
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.4            4.4          4.4         4.4          4.3
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    2.0            2.1          2.0         2.1          2.0
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    76.5           77.5         76.6        78.5         71.4
 Total U.S. Demand                         88.2           89.3         88.8        90.9         80.0 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   2.19           2.18                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.96           1.96                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             2.80           2.73                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.25           1.22                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           1.96           1.94                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.85           1.78                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           2.61           2.46                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.39           1.09 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             41.75          46.75                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                33.50          36.00                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             26.75          26.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   17.13          30.50                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              36.00          27.00                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   36.00          28.75                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Steve Orlofsky)
  
 
 
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