(The Day Ahead is an email and PDF publication that includes the day’s major stories and events, analyses and other features. To receive The Day Ahead, Eikon users can register at . Thomson One users can register at RT/DAY/US. All times in ET/GMT) Alcoa is expected to report a rise in second-quarter earnings on the back of higher aluminum premiums and stronger metal prices, offsetting lower production. Earnings will include around $200 million of restructuring-related charges from the closure of the Portovesme smelter in Italy, announced in August. Analysts expect the New York-based aluminum producer to report earnings of 22.7 cents per share, up from 11 cents reported a year earlier.
The U.S. Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its mid-September policy meeting, which could give clues on how dramatically the central bank will change its interest rate guidance later this month. Separately, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans speaks on the economy before a BMO Harris and Lakeland College Economic Briefing in Plymouth. Separately, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City issues Labor Market Conditions Indicator for September. The indicators are two monthly measures of labor market conditions based on 24 labor market variables. One indicator measures the level of activity in labor markets and the other indicator measures momentum in labor markets.
Warehouse retailer Costco Wholesale Corp is expected to report fourth-quarter profit above analysts’ estimates, helped by strong same-store sales growth and membership renewals. Gross margins are expected to expand for the first time in more than a year as margins improve on its core merchandise, including food, apparel and goods such as electronics. Monsanto, the world’s largest seed company, will issue its fourth-quarter results before markets open. Analysts expect a loss of 24 cents per share. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde gives opening remarks before the “Challenges of Job-Rich and Inclusive Growth - The Imperative of robust and sustained growth” event. Other speakers include; moderator Adam Posen, president of Peterson Institute for International Economics; John Fernald, senior research adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco; Paul Romer and Michael Spence, professors of economics at the New York University; Ernesto Zedillo, director for the Study of Globalization at Yale University. The IMF also holds a briefing on the Global Financial Stability Report, with Jose Vinals, IMF financial counselor and director of monetary and capital markets. The IMF will provide a briefing on the Fiscal Monitoring Report with Vitor Gaspar, director of Fiscal Affairs Department.
Kim Beazley, ambassador of the Commonwealth of Australia to the United States, gives introductory remarks before the Center for Strategic and International Studies G20 Brisbane Summit in Washington. Mark Sobel, deputy assistant secretary for International Monetary and Financial Policy at the U.S. Department of the Treasury, is a panelist at the event. Marcus Wallenberg, chairman of ICC G20 CEO Advisory Group and of Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken, also speaks at the summit.
The U.S. Supreme Court will hear arguments this week on whether companies operating warehouses for retailers such as Amazon.com have to pay workers for time spent going through security checks, in a case challenging how hourly employees are compensated for tasks outside their regular shifts.
A hearing is scheduled in a lawsuit by Carl Icahn-controlled CVR Energy accusing Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz of malpractice in attempting to fight the activist investor’s hostile takeover. The hearing is before U.S. District Judge Richard Sullivan in Manhattan.
JCPenney is expected to give an update on its revival and restructuring efforts. CEO Mike Ullmann is among those giving presentations at the company’s 2014 Analyst Day.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp will announce Canadian housing starts data for September (0815/1215). Analysts predict a reading of 196,100, a slight rise from August’s revised number of 192,368.
Brazil’s September inflation rate will be released by statistics agency IBGE. The annual inflation rate probably drifted away from the government’s target ceiling in September, leaving little room for any government measures to pull the economy out of a recession. Stubbornly high inflation is one of Brazil’s biggest economic problems. It has eroded business and consumer confidence, held back investments and prompted the central bank to lift interest rates earlier this year to 11 percent, a more than two-year high (0800/1200). Separately, Chile is scheduled to report September inflation data. Readings in recent months have been consistently higher than forecast and above the central bank target range (0800/1200). (All analysts’ estimates are according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S) (Compiled by Nandi Kaul in Bangalore; Editing by Kirti Pandey)