WHAT: Canadian July employment report
WHEN: Friday, August 6 at 7 a.m. EDT
Recovery: The first look at third-quarter labor market conditions is expected to yield a modest jobs gain after impressive job creation in the first half of the year brought the Canadian labor market close to its pre-recession employment peak.
A gain in July would extend the trend to a seventh straight month, underscoring the economy’s quicker and sharper than expected rebound from recession.
The jobs figures have largely contradicted other economic figures in recent months -- including retail sales, existing home sales, and wavering consumer confidence -- that have shown a slowdown from the first quarter. But after stalling in April, economic growth resumed in May, albeit slowly, with gross domestic product rising 0.1 percent.
In the second half of the year, employers may be more cautious about hiring due to expectations of slower growth.
Most analysts do not see a double-dip recession and expect modest employment growth throughout 2010.
Sectors: If job gains are in the private sector, it would suggest the recovery is self-sustaining and not as dependent as it has been on government stimulus.
Jobs data has tended to surprise on the high side in recent months, most recently creating six times more jobs than forecast in June, so a bit of an unwind may be taken in stride.
Markets say there’s a better than 50 percent chance that the central bank will raise interest rates in September by 25 basis points, to follow similar sized increases in June and July. Views are more wide-ranging for the rest of the year with some predicting a pause in monetary policy tightening.
Unexpected sharp job losses would likely lead to a selloff in the Canadian dollar and cause bond prices to rise as the likelihood of an imminent rate hike lessens.
Stronger-than-forecast jobs growth would reinforce the prevailing view that the Bank of Canada will continue to tighten monetary policy, pushing the Canadian dollar higher against its U.S. counterpart.
Reporting by Ka Yan Ng; editing by Peter Galloway