TORONTO (Reuters) - Canada’s economy generated fewer jobs than expected for the second straight month in October, increasing the likelihood that any further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada will be pushed into late next year.
“The details were better than the headline would suggest. The headline result was a bit on the disappointing side, no question about it. It does look like most of the finer points of the report were relatively solid. Just to give a few examples: full time employment, private sector employment and goods-producing employment all had a very strong month and those are usually the three areas I would first look at as an indication of how the underlying economy is fairing. And finally, the employment rate itself dipped a tenth, so overall there’s better news than the headline would suggest.”
“There might be a trace of disappointment on the headline number, but I think on balance this doesn’t move the needle in a major way. It’s certainly not strong enough to get the Bank of Canada to change their mind on staying on hold anytime soon, but at the same token, it’s not particularly weak, so I don’t think this really has a major impact on Bank of Canada policy.”
PAUL FERLEY, ASSISTANT CHIEF ECONOMIST, ROYAL BANK OF CANADA:
“The overall increase was weaker-than-expected though most of the weakness was concentrated in part-time employment. Full-time employment showed a sizable increase in the month. Despite the overall minimal gain, the unemployment rate moved down.”
“The composition is a bit more favorable than the headline implies. There’s elements of strength in the report.”
- Canada’s dollar briefly fell to a session low after the data before recovering its poise to trade nearly unchanged on the day..
The Canadian dollar fell to a session trough of C$1.0095 to the U.S. dollar, or 99.06 U.S. cents, from around C$1.0065 to the U.S. dollar, or 99.35 U.S. cents, before the data.
- Overnight index swaps, which trade based on expectations for the Bank of Canada’s key policy rate, showed investors have priced in almost no chance of a December rate hike. Based on a Reuters calculation, the market is pricing in a 97.18 percent likelihood rates will remain on hold December 7.
Reporting by Ka Yan Ng and Solarina Ho; Editing by Jeffrey Hodgson