SLOWING ECONOMY: The forecasts suggest June employment growth will continue to fade after blockbuster gains in April, while the unemployment rate stabilizes.
The job market slowdown has largely been attributed to overall economic weakness in the second quarter. Supply chain disruptions in the heavyweight manufacturing sector due to the Japanese earthquake are seen temporarily affecting hiring, while higher energy prices drag on consumer spending.
JOB QUALITY: Markets will be watching for further signs of strength in terms of more highly paid full-time jobs in private business, which are needed to boost growth.
Full-time employment in May grew by 32,900, while part-time fell by 10,600. Private-sector employees rose by 37,100 and public-sector jobs fell by 44,300.
SECTORS: In May, the job gains were led by the services sector, especially in wholesale and retail trade, while the better-paying goods-producing sector actually dropped.
A stronger than expected jobs report could slightly boost rate hike expectations for the Bank of Canada, supporting the Canadian dollar and weakening bonds.
However, a Reuters poll conducted on Wednesday showed Canada’s 12 primary dealers have pushed back their targets for the next rate hike, with two seeing no increase at all until next year.
An unexpectedly softer reading could hurt the Canadian dollar and help bond prices as the likelihood of further rate increases continues to dissipate.
Reporting by Claire Sibonney; editing by Rob Wilson