** Barclays downgrades Antofagasta to “underweight” as it sees “downside catalysts ahead”
** Brokerage expects production to fall in 2020 which is not fully reflected in consensus yet (cons. EBITDA showing increase YoY in 2020)
** Barclays sees declining grades and rising opex/capex driving declining FCF close to zero at spot over the next 5 years
** “As such, future expansions should be at higher capital intensity/lower returns that existing business,” says Barclays
** This is an industry-wide issue, it adds and says prefers cos that have already sunk capex and/or are on the cusp of stronger growth with catalysts: First Quantum Minerals and KAZ Minerals PLC (both “overweight”)
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