* Net profit seen at $109.6 mln, according to analysts
* Savings from dismissals prevented net from tumbling
* Revenue probably fell on decline in aircraft deliveries
By Cesar Bianconi
SAO PAULO, July 27 (Reuters) - Net income at Embraer (EMBR3.SA)(ERJ.N), the world's third-largest commercial aircraft manufacturer, probably fell in the second quarter from a year ago as revenue tumbled, but efforts to pare payroll costs and other expenses limited the decline, analysts told Reuters on Monday.
Five analysts polled by Reuters forecast, on average, net income of $109.6 million for the three months ended June 30, down from $134.4 million a year earlier. The Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil-based company posted a loss of $23.4 million in the first quarter.
All estimates are based on U.S. accounting guidelines.
Revenue, estimated at $1.42 billion, declined from a year earlier but probably rose from the first quarter of this year, the analysts said.
The company, led by Chief Executive Frederico Curado, books revenue from plane sales only at delivery. In the second quarter it delivered 56 planes, compared with 52 in the same period of 2008 and 40 in the first quarter of this year.
Deliveries in the April-June period included 21 units of the Phenom 100 executive jet for up to five passengers, which sells for about $4 million. Deliveries of its Embraer 190 model fell to 16 in the quarter from 21 a year earlier.
Analysts hailed Embraer's decision to reduce its workforce to cope with the impact of the global recession on demand for new aircraft. The company expects a recovery in the industry between 2011 and 2012.
Embraer fired more than 4,000 workers in February to cope with the impact of a decline in demand for new jets amid the worst credit crisis in seven decades and the slowest global economy since the late 1950s.
Embraer, the world's leading manufacturer of regional jets seating up to 120 passengers, said the crisis forced it to lay off about 20 percent of its workforce, which used to total more than 21,000 people.
The company booked a $50 million expense related to the dismissals in the first quarter and did not rule out taking additional charges related to the measure in coming quarters.
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, a gauge of cash and operational profitability known as EBITDA, probably rose to $161.9 million in the second quarter from $129 million a year earlier, according to the five analysts.
EBITDA margins, or EBITDA as a proportion of revenue, likely improved to 11.4 percent from 7.9 percent.
"Margins (will) improve significantly versus (the first quarter of 2009), reflecting a 20 percent workforce reduction since February, higher fixed cost dilution, and ongoing cost-cutting efforts," analysts at Credit Suisse said in a July 15 report.
Embraer is expected to report its quarterly results on Thursday after markets close in Brazil.
The company, whose main rival in the regional jet market is Canada's Bombardier Inc (BBDb.TO), delivered a record 203 planes in 2008, 20 percent more than in 2007.
The following table shows the analysts' average estimates for Embraer: ===============================================================
Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2008 YoY CHANGE (In millions of U.S. dollars) -------------------------------------------------------------- Net income $109.6 ($23.4) $134.4 -18.5 pct Revenue $1,421 $1,154 $1,635 -13.1 pct EBITDA $161.9 $47.0 $129.0 +25.5 pct EBITDA margin 11.4 pct 4.1 pct 7.9 pct +3.5 points ============================================================== (Reporting by Cesar Bianconi; Writing by Guillermo Parra-Bernal; editing by John Wallace)