September 23, 2015 / 5:23 AM / in 2 years

Portugal ruling alliance leads for October 4 vote, no majority: poll

LISBON (Reuters) - Portugal's ruling coalition had a slight lead over the main opposition Socialists for the Oct. 4 general election but no side will win a full parliament majority, according to a poll series released on Tuesday.

The prospect of political stalemate that recent polls similarly show could undermine Portugal's recovery from a debt crisis. Analysts say a minority administration would be a bigger risk than a government change as most see broad policy continuity in terms of budget consolidation.

The new survey, which will now be released daily by Intercampus pollster for newspaper Publico and TVI, put the center-right ruling coalition on 40.1 percent, with the center-left Socialists trailing behind on 37.1 percent. They were followed by the Communist-Green alliance on 6.3 percent and the Left Bloc on 4 percent support.

The results were similar to another daily poll, by Catolica University, which has the coalition on 40 percent and the Socialists with 35 percent of voting intentions.

The daily tracking poll series are meant more to gauge trends, especially among those now undecided, rather than predict the result. The Intercampus poll showed one in five Portuguese still undecided, while Catolica had one in three.

Portugal's bailout program, which it completed in May 2014, has not sparked the mass resistance that produced radical anti-bailout parties in Spain and Greece.

The Intercampus poll surveyed 753 people between Sept. 18 and 20. The margin of error was 3.5 percent.

Following are the recent opinion polls by the leading pollsters for voting intentions (valid votes):

NOTE: PS - Socialist Party; PSD/CDS - center-right ruling coalition of Social Democrats and rightist CDS-PP; CDU - Communists-Greens alliance. Others - parties without parliament representation, with the leading two - populist PDR and leftist LIVRE - with less than 3 percent support each according to the latest polls. Most include null and void votes in that category.

PS PSD/CDS CDU Left Bloc Others Pollster Date

37.1 40.1 6.3 4.0 3.5* Intercampus Sept 22**

35.0 40.0 8.0 7.0 4.0* Catolica Sept 21**

35.0 40.0 8.0 7.0 3.0* Catolica Sept 20**

34.0 40.0 8.0 8.0 3.0* Catolica Sept 19**

34.0 41.0 7.0 8.0 3.0* Catolica Sept 18**

34.7 35.3 8.3 5.8 16.0 Aximage Sept 18

35.5 34.0 10.3 5.2 15.0 Eurosondagem Sept 18

33.3 38.9 8.5 4.6 14.4 Aximage Sept 7

36.0 35.0 10.4 4.6 14.0 Eurosondagem Sept 2

36.3 34.8 10.0 5.0 13.9 Eurosondagem Aug 7

38.0 37.8 7.5 4.0 12.7 Aximage July 17

36.7 34.6 10.2 4.8 13.7 Eurosondagem July 10

37.6 32.7 11.0 6.0 6.0* Intercampus July 9

37.0 38.0 10.0 8.0 7.0* Catolica Univ. June 19

36.9 33.3 10.5 4.5 14.8 Eurosondagem June 12

38 37.2 7.5 4 13.3 Aximage June 4

38.1 33.6 10.3 4.8 13.2 Eurosondagem May 12

37.3 37.2 7.7 4.2 13.6 Aximage May 4

37.5 34.7 10.2 4.3 13.3 Eurosondagem April 15

36.9 36.5 9.2 3.5 13.9 Aximage April 8

38.1 33.3 9.6 4.4 14.6 Eurosondagem March 10

36.1 35.0 10.7 4.0 14.2 Aximage March 6

*Other parties only

**New tracking poll series

Reporting By Andrei Khalip, editing by Axel Bugge

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